Urban centers have experienced a renaissance in recent decades. Cities have enjoyed population growth, investment, and tax base expansion. Once seen as the answer to the needs of a population demanding more, cities have seen their fortunes change as suburbs and rural areas attract new attention as desirable destinations for an increasingly restless population adjusting to the remote work explosion and other changes driven by pandemic response. A thoughtful piece by Thomas Edsal should serve as a wakeup call to urbanists and to Cape Codders alike.

Why should the Cape care about what is happening to the cities? Simple. Think about the economics and demographics of the people leaving cities and looking at Cape Cod as relocation destination. According to the Cape Cod Commission, these people are wealthier and more financially liquid than the resident population of the Cape. In crass terms, the newcomers have the means to outcompete those who currently live and work on the Cape for housing. The outmigration from cities disfavors the ability of the Cape locals to effectively participate in the housing market, exacerbating the labor shortages and housing dislocation we are hearing so much about.

Much of the discussion about housing has focused on increasing supply as the answer. Notwithstanding the recommendations of the GrowSmart Cape Cod project to direct new housing to core town centers and to protect the critical habitat portions of the remaining undeveloped and unprotected 14% of Cape Cod, there is increasing pressure to develop all of it to meet the housing needs of the region. There are enormous water quality, climate, and landscape implications if the Cape decides to sacrifice its remaining open space to what will be a failed attempt to build its way out of the housing crisis.

Why will a market-based building solution fail? Look at the data. The disparity in buying power between current Cape Codders and those who want to enter this market makes it obvious that, as is often the case, those with money will win. The result is most likely to be that a “build our way out of it” approach will leave us with the same affordability problems we face now, only worse, and more of the negatives (traffic, poor water quality and degraded landscapes) we already have from existing development patterns. Nothing I have heard yet calms my fears that the market forces will consume new housing starts and price them above any affordability metric. In fact, the featured speaker at a recent housing forum boasted that the answer to the affordable housing crisis is a market-based housing approach without, for good reason, defining the many thousands of units that would be required and the undisturbed open space they would consume. While understanding that conventional subsidy programs are inadequate to address the needs of the region, throwing the solution to the same market that has helped create today’s problems and expecting a different outcome makes no sense.

APCC is no different than a lot of employers challenged to find staff in a very difficult housing market. We also have families and children who want to stay on Cape Cod but face economic challenges in doing so. That said, we also know that we cannot sacrifice our remaining open spaces to feed an insatiable market that will consume all it is fed and will always want more. The housing issue has the attention of decision makers at the highest levels and we hope that there is an openness to developing Cape specific solutions that are both effective and protective of what makes Cape Cod appealing in the first place.